List of publications, posters and presentations

Orme ME, Paine AC, Hogue SL. Development and preliminary results of the health and economic consequences of smoking model. Value in Health. (1999), 2, (5): 358. ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To determine the health and economic burden on health care systems of smoking-related illness. Additionally, to demonstrate the disease cases and costs averted with successful smoking cessation programmes. METHODS: A number of different modelling techniques were considered. Discrete difference equations were chosen as the most appropriate for modelling smoking status and health changes, as well as key smoking-related disease costs and the effects of smoking cessation products, within six European countries. A user-friendly interface was constructed using Visual Basic with an Access database. The study was performed as part of the WHO European Partnership Project to Reduce Tobacco Dependence and the countries thus included the four of the WHO Partnership Project, (the UK, France, Germany, Poland) and additionally the Netherlands and Italy. Within each of these countries, six smoking-related diseases were considered, COPD, asthma exacerbations, stroke, heart disease, lung cancer and low birth weight. From current smoking prevalence, disease prevalence and incidence, and local treatment patterns and costs of these smoking-related diseases, the model predicts disease outcomes (e.g. number of cases) and costs in the short term (2-, 5-years) and in the longer term (10-, 20-years). Assuming a one-off investment in smoking cessation products, the model also considers the improved outcomes that might be seen from such a cessation program. RESULTS: The model demonstrates that over the next 20 years in these European countries, between 33% and 54% of current smokers will contract a smoking-related disease, resulting in 14 million preventable deaths. If the prevalence of smoking remains constant, more than US $300 billion will be spent in direct medical costs in these six countries to treat smoking-related diseases over 20 years. CONCLUSION: The model predictions are consistent with previously published sources and the results demonstrate the importance of smoking cessation efforts to prevent deaths from smoking within Europe.

Presented at the Second annual Conference of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR), November 11-13, Edinburgh, Scotland.

Citation: Value in Health  Elsevier